Oscar nominations & predictations

I think I’ll just jump right into it before I completely forget and have to start doing the research as to the nominees.

First off, there are a lot of predictable choices for nominees… let’s be clear on that.
I mean, all these movies and the cast & crew that were nominated for and/or won Golden Globes, that’s more or less my “moral compass” as to figuring out the most likely nominees.

That and the movies with the biggest stars that happen to come out towards the end of the year.

And yeah… hoping against all hope, I heard the people at GMA saying that they were unsure who the 5th Best Actor nominee was going to be… even though Sherlock 2 was completely ignored by the Golden Globes, I was holding out until the last minute for “Robert Downey Jr. for Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows”

now that I’m really thinking about it, after seeing a couple of clips from the movie last night (per the interviews I was watching/rewatching), his version of Sherlock is definitely closer to the books… with that little “Captain Jack Sparrow” twist

But anyway… the nominees…

The cool part this year was that I’d heard of nearly all the films that were nominated for best picture… last year, it was like… let’s see… Inception (heard of it, haven’t seen it), Toy Story 3 (saw it, loved it), The King’s Speech (heard of it, didn’t see it yet), Black Swan (heard about it, didn’t see it)… then there was “The Kids are All right” and “Winter’s Bone”… which I never heard of… The Social Network (heard of, but didn’t see it… now regretting I didn’t go to theaters when I had a chance… even at $10 at Wal-mart, I’m very hesitant to buy a movie I haven’t seen)… The Figher (didn’t think I heard of that one)… okay, so maybe not the same case… I think that foreign film “Biutiful” was also nominated for best picture… but literally I think I listed at least 7-8 of the nominees and had seen at least 5… that’s pretty good for me…

One of the GMA people listed “Bridesmaids” as one of his picks for best picture nominees… I was ready to flip out on him and say “aw hell no!”… I simply cannot believe all the buzz that movie is getting.
My mom said “how is that different from The Hangover”…
and I’m like “I hate to sound anti-feminist, but girls shouldn’t do gross-out comedies like that…” it just doesn’t work for me…

and yes… the nerdy girl ending up with the hot guy, that’s totally different and that’s the kind of movie I’d love to see… again, hard to do without it becoming like something out of my own life šŸ™„

I’ll start with what I remember first.

Best Animated Picture… the first two, I had never heard of… so I’m thinking WTF…
followed up by Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots and (I was expecting “Tin-Tin” but it turned out to be) Rango… which I had expected to get recognized for a Golden Globe for best animated film…
to me, its the type of movie where I’m thinking it has Oscar written all over it, much in the way the more professional and polished motion pictures get the Oscar nominations every year…

Me, I’d seen all three movies… which is often the case when it comes to the Animated category… I mentioned a couple times how I got burned one year when “Spirited Away” won and it was literally the only film I didn’t see in that category… annnd you know, eating my words a couple months later, go figure

of those three… I’d say that Kung Fu Panda was my favorite of the three, the most entertaining and fun…
Puss in Boots… I was thinking about it while shoveling snow the other day funnily enough… cuz our last snowstorm was when I HAD to get to the theater to see it opening weekend… and something about it really threw me off…

the whole twist going into the third act where Puss has to turn himself in to custody for a crime Humpty Dumpty committed several years ago… well both of them were in on it, but Puss was an unwilling, unknowing (until the last minute) accomplice… yet, how come the town was on Humpty Dumpty’s side when he was also involved in the crime… did they not SEE him doing it or was there a serious miscalcuation by the writers?
no, I totally think that the writers goofed up on that because I didn’t buy into that at all…

I mean, I love Zach Galifianakis… but when he plays the bad guy, I dunno… I really don’t like him when he plays the bad guy… maybe cuz he’s too good at playing bad and I prefer seeing him doing the ‘lovable idiot’ persona courtesy of Todd Phillips šŸ˜Ž
both intentionally and unintentionally, I must have seen half a dozen of his movies last year…
in additon to this one, he wasn’t a nice guy in “Youth in Revolt” (in the half hour he is actually in the movie, his character dies of a heart attack or something), he was the villian in “Dinner for Schmucks”… like the Kryptonite to Steve Carrell’s character, Barry… who eventually gets the best of him oh that was such a cute movie, especially with Barry’s mouse diagram/story…
he was a good guy in that movie “It’s kind of a funny story”… it was an odd movie to say the least, but in a number of ways, I can totally relate

RANGO, I’d have to see… because Hollywood is what it is during awards season, is what I see winning for BEST ANIMATED FILM… it wasn’t the most engaging and entertaining of the movies… I think the advertizing was all wrong, cuz it seemed like it was geared towards kids, but it was very adult for a kid’s movie…
mind you, I never read any Gonzo journalism pieces or saw “Fear & Loathing in Las Vegas”… but because I knew Johnny Depp was in that movie, I was really getting that Hunter S. Thompson vibe in this movie… in a big way, which kinda cut it down quite a bit as being a movie I’d say I’d loved to see again…
Nostalgia Critic got it right in bringing this movie up while discussing his “10 worst cliches”… a truth is revealed and the movie completely stalls out for a couple minutes… the townsfolk of Dirt found out, courtesy of Rattle Snake Jake, that Rango wasn’t a hero or a sheriff and he gets run out of town, which falls victim to the bad guys… as if they’re choosing the bad guys over this chameleon that lied about who he is…

oh… so you’re not a sheriff… forget that we liked your personality and stuff… because you’re not who you said you were, we don’t like you no more… I mean, does that make any sense to you?

Why was Kung Fu Panda 2 great? …phew, too many reasons to really name… the casting obviously, a really good story where you didn’t what to expect… and dare I say Gary Oldman played a helluva baddie in that white peacock… a couple of people, including Mr. Downey, have said that a hero is only as good as his villian… and yeah, I think that white peacock was one of the coolest bad guys of any movie I’d seen and seeing how he got defeated… that definitely affirms that Po was the Ninja Warrior, even after the first movie was all about proving the same thing… yeah, I’d have to see that again and judge the movie as a sequel…
and it’s not often a sequel gets that kind of praise… I thought the original was really good, but the sequel blew me away, it was so much fun to watch

okay, moving on…

there were nominees for best original and best adapted screenplay… this I’m not going to pay too much attention to…
for originality, Midnight in Paris got one of its nominations… The Artist I believe also, yes… those two, A Separation (also nominated for best foreign film), Margin Call and Bridesmaids (man, that’d be a heck of a victory for SNL)… but I’d have to go with the Golden Globe winner and the only one I can attest to: MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
for ADAPTATION The Help, The Descendants and I believe Moneyball also…
shoot, my bad… that wasn’t The Help… Hugo was the movie I was thinking of… those two, The Ides of March and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy… I dunno… I guess THE DESCENDANTS to go along with its score of other nominations

I’m not going to go into the matter of:
Art Direction (I’m sure Hugo will win this one)
Sound Editing
Sound Mixing
Editing
Visual or Special Effects (though I see Harry Potter got a nomination there)

those are all the technical awards that I don’t know too much about (though I’m betting that if RDJ is handing out any awards, it’ll be one of those, lol… cuz he’d done those over the past couple years… but then again, he might get lucky and be bumped up to announcing an award for writing)

Original Score, Original Song, Music, etc…. not going to go into that either… not really my forte when it comes to movies

Which leaves the biggies…

for BEST DIRECTOR,
Martin Scorceses- Hugo
Alexander Payne- The Descendants
the guy from “Tree of Life”
the guy from “The Artist”
and of course, Woody Allen for “Midnight in Paris”

Sorceses won for “Hugo” at the Golden Globes… he might get this one too because, you know, geting snubbed all these years until “The Departed” rectified the situation (even though several people are arguing that it wasn’t the best movie that year and all the people involved won to make up for years of snubbing)…

I dunno… I’d like to see Woody Allen win for Midnight in Paris… but I’m almost positive it’ll be
ALEXANDER PAYNE because “The Descendants” may/may not be a shoo-in for best picture as well… they like to pair those two up quite a bit… the guy who wins best director almost always is the one who directed the best picture

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS… Christian Bale will present because he won Best Supporting Actor last year for “The Fighter” (I’ve heard that he was better in his role than Mark Walberg was in his… and he’s the more troubled character… and of course, the less likely of the two… )…

Melissa McCarthy- Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer
Jessica Chastain- both for The Help
Bernice (I wanna get this right) Berenice Bejo- The Artist
and someone called Janet Teers for this movie I never heard of, Albert Nobbs… I think it was one of those small release movies that only was released for a short amount of time…

a lot of people were up in arms about the fact Melissa McCarthy was snubbed by the Hollywood Foreign Press for a Golden Globe… saying how she stole the show, how great she was, etc, etc. I’d have to see for myself of course (naturally šŸ˜• I mean, I don’t like the idea of “Bridesmaids” or really care for Maya Rudolph or Kristen Wiig, I don’t think either of them are really that funny… but at same point, when it comes out on cable, I’ll have to see it if it was as good as everyone said it is… )…

there was one comment on Yahoo! that I saw about whether Berenice will get the recognition and be nominated for best actress… because she was the leading lady in the movie, but maybe Uggie the Jack Russell got more screentime and that’s why, lmao…

All of them, except for maybe the unknown… have a chance at getting this win…
Octavia Spencer won the Golden Globe and I’d heard people saying that it’d be a shame if Jessica Chastain didn’t get nominated…

I would have to go with my gut on this one… and it’ll be Octavia Spencer… BUT… can’t really count anyone out… it could be Melissa McCarthy… and really, it doesn’t matter to me. Whoever wins will definitely deserve it šŸ˜Ž

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR, will be presented by Melissa Leo who won last year for “The Fighter”

Jonah Hill- Moneyball (WTF??!!)
Christopher Plummer- Beginniners (never heard of it)
Nick Nolte- Warrior
Max von Sydrow- Extremely Cloud & Incredibly Close
Kenneth Branagh- My Week with Marilyn

anyone’s game… Christopher Plummer is the most seasoned actor out of all of them… Max von Sydrow came out of nowhere for this movie, so I dunno… Nick Nolte? where did that come from? I don’t think “Warrior” even got that much buzz… I think it was another Channing Tatum movie, but I don’t remember much about it…

Kenneth Branagh… funnily enough, I was watching this one interview last night… Robert was saying how he loved “My week with Marilyn”… I guess the interviewer was asking for his opinion on any movies out that he really liked or was affected by or something like that… the only reason I knew he was in this movie was because Robert said his name… I have good reason to believe that he has a chance (yeah, one person saying he liked him is really cause for me to agree, lmao)…

I would like for Kenneth Branagh to win, but I think Christopher Plummer is the most likely person to take it

Jonah Hill… I just have to ask WHY??
then again, should he win ( šŸ˜• strange things have happened)… I’d have to see Moneyball anyway because of all the buzz surrounding it, but yeah, I’d definitely have to size him up too… see if he really deserved these nominations… I get the feeling that just maybe he did… cuz in this movie he’s playing a serious role which must be a breath of fresh air compared to every other loser he played in his movies
in fact, I find him so… not funny, overrated, etc, etc. …that in comparsion, Channing Tatum looks good in that upcoming movie “21 Jump Street”… which I’m doubting is going to get a lot of creditable simply because of Jonah Hill is involved… that along kinda speaks out for a movie’s suckyness…

Man, I’d never make it as a journalist in any matter of Entertainment magazine… I’m a little too liberal and outspoken about my likes and dislikes… I can’t be super objective, at least not all the time

BEST ACTRESS, will be presented by Colin Firth, who won last year for “The King’s Speech”
Glenn Close- Albert Nobbs (again, WTF? never heard of this movie, where’s it coming from?)
Viola Davis- The Help
Meryl Streep- The Iron Lady
Rooney Mara- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Michelle Williams- My Week with Marilyn

A couple of these were more obvious choices than others and I had my own reaction to each of them…

Viola Davis, rightfully so… I can’t help but agree (she’s had so many good roles lately too. The first time I saw her was as the therapist in “It’s kind of a funny story”… I really liked her in that too)

Meryl Streep was so obvious that it was GLARING

Rooney Mara had me screaming and jumping up and down… I had no idea she’d even be considered for nomination because it’s such a risque role and whatever… as if not all of the Midnight in Paris nominations, this was my highlight moment this morning where I was genuinely excited šŸ˜€

and I was holding my breath until the last minute for Michelle Williams’ name to be called

when I first heard about “My Week in Marilyn,” all of the buzz immediately started from there… immediately after that, I said to myself “She’s going to be my pick to win best actress”

it’s a very competitive category this year and depending on what’s hot, who’s voting and whatnot… it could go a number of ways…

I’d love to see Rooney Mara win, I’d be over the moon for that… because it’s such an intricate part where you had to literally throw yourself into it.

Everyone’s saying that it’s a race between Viola Davis and Meryl Streep… and for good reason

but I’m thinking… Meryl Streep is kinda like the Susan Lucci of film… she gets nominated all the time, but has only won a handful of times… I believe I read that she won 5 times… and this morning I heard she’d gotten 17 nominations and hasn’t won since she did “Sophie’s Choice”
I know she won… at least I think she won… for “Kramer vs. Kramer”… I can’t remember if she and Dustin Hoffman both won or were nominated… for being in the same movie together

she has a huge catalog of work that goes on for decades… she’s also the most respected choice and sure bet to win because… reasons A-Z, she’s Meryl Streep

BUT… beyond a shadow of a doubt, I’m going to put all of my money on Michelle Williams
I’d respect the votes if Viola Davis won, but for Meryl Streep, I would flip out if she won for this because The Iron Lady had just come out only a month ago… yeah, you release the movie at the last minute just to get your nomination cast… that seems a little ridiculous, not to mention unfair to the younger talent that goes unrecognized cuz Hollywood just works that way

the way it goes usually is that the person that wins best actor/actress for their category does so for a number of reasons:
a) they really were the best person in their category
b) they have been snubbed for years and this makes up for that, but often times they don’t deserve it for that role
c) Hollywood likes veterans, plain and simple
d) it’s given posthumously (Heath Ledger isn’t the only one honored, but I’m just saying… supposing “Less than Zero” ended as tragically as the movie went, even then Robert Downey Jr. wouldn’t be given an Oscar for that role because maybe he was just too into it… James Dean, I’m never gonna understand… he died a month before “Rebel without a cause” was released and I thought he was amazing in that role… even though I had no idea when/how he did, only that he died before his time… I think he deserved to win for that movie cuz he was just so compelling… geesh… I’m starting to sound more like Robert all the time, using words like “compelling” and “engaging” to describe movies/actors, lmao)
e) a young person gave an OUTSTANDING performance in their first [big] role

Plain and simple… at least 80 or 90% of the time, the veterans win and/or the best person really won…
but there are a couple of cases I believe (I don’t remember any people who won… well, there is Jennifer Hudson, in her first movie role ever, she won an Oscar) where a newbie comes on the screen, knocks it out of the park and just really deserves to win in their given role

I never saw “Dreamgirls” so I can’t say that for sure… but hey, as an American Idol fan, I’m not going to argue with that

BEST ACTOR, being presented by Natalie Portman who won last year for “Black Swan”
George Clooney- The Descendants
Gary Oldman- Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Jean Dujardin- The Artist
Demian Bichir- A Better Life (????)
Brad Pitt- Moneyball

A Better Life and Albert Nobbs (okay, I think I have heard of that one, now that I think about it, but I know nothing about it) are two movies I’d heard a couple times this morning that have me scratching my head…
almost as much as all this buzz for “The Tree of Life”… didn’t that movie come out a couple years ago?

no joke, I have a list of movies that were said to be the best movies of 2009… going into 2009… I marked all the ones I wanted to see and I have seen at least a handful of them… among them were Ponyo (havent seen yet), Sherlock Holmes (naturally), The Green Zone (nope), Avatar (hell yeah), Up (yep)… and a bunch of those that I have seen or may never seen…
Tree of Life was one of them… I knew that Brad Pitt was in it and aside from that, I know nothing else… its one of those independant Sundance/Tribeca/Cannes film festival movies that didn’t get wide release… I don’t think I even saw it get in theaters, it came and went and only the people on the inside (and/or Hollywood) know about it…
so really, shouldn’t it have been nominated last year?

everyone was unsure who the fifth nomination was going to be… I was hoping for a Downey nomination (again, against all hope, I was hoping, lol)… but I totally forgot that when Gary Oldman’s name was called… that came out of nowhere and I was thrilled for him šŸ˜Ž he deserves a little recongition

I couldn’t even remember if Brad Pitt was nominated and yeah, he is…

depending on who the best picture goes to, I think its going to be between Clooney and Jean Dujardin…
but I’d have to go with GEORGE CLOONEY on this one šŸ˜Ž

and finally…

here are the nominees are BEST MOTION PICTURE:

man, I don’t know how much writing I’m gonna get in today, my left bicep is killing me

This is very roughly in the order from which they were announced…
I heard all this buzz about “War Horse”, but didn’t think it’d get the honor…
“Hugo” was a surprise, for sure (making me regret that I didn’t go out to see it, lol)
“Tree of Life,” I had to question… again

“The Help” was obvious…
as were all the other main choices (“The Descendants,” “The Artist”, “Moneyball”)

“Midnight in Paris” had me cheering….

the way the backdrop screen was… in the top middle, they had the name of the category and the blocks with the names of the pictures went around the frame… starting from the bottom left, going up… then the top right going down… it looked like it was going to be 8 best picture nominees… BUT… wait for it…

“Extremely Cloud & Incredibly Close”

completely snuck up on everyone… I think after Rooney Mara’s name, this had me cheering the loudest because I thought that despite all the critics praising it (well, Ebert was a little less than agreeable), it was completely ignored by the Golden Globes, which I thought was a big red flag…
I did get a few Critic’s Choice Awards, though

in the GMA discussion afterwards, people were asking about that… someone said that a lot of people found it a hard film to watch because it’s about post 9/11… sure, I’m sure it’s very emotional and part of me still wants to see it a great deal (I mean, you know, after “Remember Me” had such an impact on me… it could be like a good follow-up, hearing about the family and what they’re like after they lose someone to that tragedy, I wrote a story about that and it turned it pretty well… after all of the depression talk and such, lol)

It’s going to be a tight race, no doubt… between “The Descendants” and “The Artist”… very close… it depends on what Hollywood is into… are they into a really great Clooney performance or do they want to give a nod to a silent film, something that is I guess retro in every sense of the word in this day and age…
make no mistake, I will be seeing both of those movies within the next month… just need to watch for The Artist to start playing locally and “The Descendants,” I want to make a date for either Friday or Saturday šŸ˜Ž

as for what I really want to win… right now…
“Midnight in Paris” is…. actually šŸ˜• if I’m coming entirely straight on this and I think I am… the ONLY movie out of all those that I actually saw… so of course I’d like for that to happen… not to mention, if it did win, it’d be the best accident I’d ever encountered, lmao

“The Help”… I’m reading the book right now, actually… and, while it might be too early to say anything (although I am nearly up to 400 pages now), I think I’m going to love the movie too šŸ˜Ž

but as to what most likely will win:
I have my money on “THE DESCENDANTS

šŸ˜• and in case everyone’s a little too lazy to read through all of this, here’s my short list on who my picks are for winning Oscars this year:

Best Animated Film: Rango
Best Original Screenplay: Midnight in Paris
Best Adapted Screenplay: The Descendants
Best Director- Alexander Payne
Best Supporting Actress: Octavia Spencer
Best Supporting Actor: Christopher Plummer
Best Actress: Michelle Williams
Best Actor: George Clooney
Best Picture: The Descendants

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